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Date Written: June 02, 2004
Author: Mr. Pony
Average Vote: 4.4
All systems are go for Smarty. Barring extremely unusual circumstances, we will have our first Triple Crown winner in 26 years at 6:45 P.M. tomorrow. Folks, this ain't a great betting race; we've got to focus on the exotics like a laser beam, that is to say, as laser beams are wont to focus, with extreme discipline and ruthlessness. The weather forecast is now calling for extended rain throughout the day tomorrow...we could very well have a sloppy track by post time for the Belmont. I believe that a wet track will aid the fortunes of Smarty Jones and Birdstone, and possibly compromise Purge. Nonetheless, the biggest impact that rain may have could be on the scratch board...an already valueless race could become even more so if some trainers choose to defect from the race because of the track conditions. I would not radically alter any bets, no matter what the condition of the track, except maybe putting Birdstone a little more prominently at the bottom of the exotics (3rd and 4th positions)if it rains. Purge is being listed as the second choice at 5-1 on the morning line. I believe that Rock Hard Ten will be the second choice, and Purge will be the third. I hope that I am wrong, as I will be betting against Purge. His impressive win in the Peter Pan at Belmont two weeks ago (108 Beyer) will hopefully convince a lot of people to bet on him. However, that was a one turn race, and this colt has yet to win a two-turn race. Also, the asshole owner theory (remember how we successfully used this strategy to throw out Imperialism in the Preakness) is in play with this horse. Purge's trainer, the very talented Todd Pletcher, initially said he wanted no part of Smarty Jones after the Peter Pan. The horse's owner, Jack Wolf (he even sounds like a jerk) had other plans, however. Apparently he forgets the ass-whupping that Smarty twice laid on Purge back in Arkansas. So, who do we like for second and third?
Rock Hard Ten and Eddington. I expect the Rock to finish a clear second and Eddington a clear third, but allow for the possibility of a reversal for the place and show. Any one of the other shitters could get fourth, although I suppose Purge, Master David, Birdstone and Royal Assault are the most likely, in that order. Do NOT bet anything other than token money on Caiman and Tap Dancer, and it should only be at the bottom of your super....I think it's more likely that Smarty Jones loses than either of these two nags hit the superfecta. There is a free handicapping session being sponsored by the Daily Racing Form tonight at 7PM at the Playwrights Lounge, 27 W.35th St. (between 5th and 6th Ave.)
They give out free racing forms for tomorrow (a $5 value) and discuss the race. More importantly, you get all kinds of lunatic railbirds at these events who offer great, albeit unintentional, comedy. This is excellent source material for any writer.
Here is how I am investing $100 of a colleague's money:
$40 Trifecta 1. Smarty Jones 2. Rock Hard Ten
3. Eddington Pays 20X posted payout
$10 Trifecta 1. Smarty Jones 2. Eddington 3. Rock Hard Ten
Pays 5X posted payout
$2 Superfecta 1. Smarty Jones 2,3,4: Rock Hard Ten, Eddington, Purge (any order)
($12 Bet) Pays 1X posted payout
$1 Superfecta 1. Smarty Jones 2,3: Rock Hard Ten Eddington (any order) 4. All
($12 Bet) Pays ½ posted payout
$3 Superfecta 1. Smarty Jones 2,3: Rock Hard Ten Eddington (any order) 4. Purge, Master David, Birdstone, Royal Assault ($24 Bet) Pays 1.5X posted payout
$2 Superfecta 1. Smarty Jones 2. Rock Hard Ten 3. Eddington 4. Purge Pays 1X posted payout
06/4/2004 scoop: Bitchin' anal-ysis, Mr. Joshua.
06/4/2004 scoop (4): What's he thinking about Mr. Pony, the big race?
06/4/2004 Mr. Pony:
06/4/2004 scoop: How many tufts of Nazi kitty-kitty hair does each of those signifires represent?
06/4/2004 Mr. Pony:
06/4/2004 Mr. Pony:
06/4/2004 scoop: O)< O)< O)<
06/4/2004 Jon Matza: Hats off to Mr. Joshua once again for the entertaining and valuable info. This is almost too easy--it's like insider trading.
06/4/2004 Ferucio P. Chhretan: Hey Mr. Pony, are those very tiny pink Tamashiro Market crabs on the left hand bottom corner of the screen?
06/4/2004 Mr. Joshua: A little clarifaction on my post:
Where it says things like "20x posted payout", this refers to what it will say on the tote board after the race. So if the trifecta pays $16, you will win $320.
The "x posted payout" does NOT reflect the odds (i.e. 20-1). That being said here are my predicted odds for the bets:
Trifecta: Smarty/RHT/Eddington 12-1
Superfecta: Smarty/RHT/Eddington/Purge 25-1
Smarty/RHT/Edd/Master,Bird, Royal 35-1
Smarty/Edd/RHT/Master,Bird, Royal 45-1
Smarty/RHT/Edd/Caiman, Tap 75-1
Smarty/Edd/RHT/Caiman, Tap 90-1
Here is how you ask for some of these bets:
$2 Super 9 with 2,5,8 with 2,5,8, with 2,5,8
This is the $2 super with Smarty on top, and RHT, Eddington and Purge in any order in slots 2 through 4. ($12 Bet) You can make this bet cost $6 by asking for a $1 Superfecta.
$40 Straight Trifecta 9-5-8
This bet means Smarty wins, RHT gets second, Eddington gets third. No other order wins, it's fuck or walk. ($40 Bet)
$3 Superfecta 9 with 5,8 with 5,8 with 1,2,4,6
This super means that Smarty has to win, RHT or Eddington have to get 2nd, RHT or Eddington have to get 3rd, and Master David, Purge, Birdstone, or Royal Assault must get 4th. ($24 Bet) You can make this bet only cost $8, instead of $24 by asking for a $1 superfecta, instead of a $3.
06/4/2004 scoop: Good catch, FPC, what're those little guys, Mr. Pony? Can they be steamed, picked and mixed with mayo and a light sprinkling of Old Bay seasoning to make a delicious Jerry's Seafood crab Bomb?
06/4/2004 Ewan Snow: I assumed those were Boba Fett's free guys.
06/4/2004 John Slocum: Mr. Joshua - I heard that phrase used to describe Barolo (for those not in the know - the king of wines and the wine of kings). Did louis XIV say that about Hungarian wine (Tokaji), or wine from alsace (Tokay) or northern italy (Tocai)? Serious question.
06/4/2004 qualcomm (4):
06/4/2004 TheBuyer (4): I owe you one from the original Smartie Jones lowball vote - i never should have stopped smoking pot, i am no longer fun-bobby.
06/4/2004 scoop: WELCOME TO ACME WEAK ANUS!
06/4/2004 scoop: Since Pony posted this: "6/3/[censored] 12:53:05 PM - Mr. Pony: I'm telling you, we should all start using emoticons," has anyone seen him use language to communicate? I fear the signified of Pony has collapsed in to the signifier of Pony and he has META-morphed into pure symbol.
06/4/2004 TheBuyer: Wow, THAT is plugged in.
06/4/2004 John Slocum (5): One of the things Pony consistently does well is to add touches (at least one, usually more) that are both unexpected and understated, not so obvious but "which" the "viewer" "apprehends" over time. I'd like to note one here: the intensely uttered phrase "I'm thinking" after a slightly anxious, pregnant pause - who's in charge here, the jockey or the horse? Is this a clever "commentary" on the "legend" of Smartie Jones? Also, given that Boba Shakleton (sp?) is coming up on his heels, what exactly does he think he's going to think of, and he has about .07 seconds to think of it. But one ends up thinking Smartie Jones will think of something. Such is his legend, and such is the legend of Mr. Pony. I had an extended wine metaphor I was going to put here, but I've decided not to use it. Suffice it to say they don't do this is California or Australia. And I've decided to change my 4 to a 5.
06/4/2004 John Slocum: Also, check out the body language of the Robot after SJ tells him to shut up. Excellent. Very much in character.
06/5/2004 Benny Maniacs (5): I am concerned and very much intrigued by the mental ailment of Smarty Jones. Also, I wonder if the title should be SMARTY JONES VS. BOBA FETT.
06/5/2004 Jon Matza: You try so hard
But you don't understand
Just what you'll say
When you get home
Because something is happening here
But you don't know what it is
Do you, Mister Jones?
06/5/2004 Jon Matza: What went wrong, Mr. Joshua?
06/5/2004 Jon Matza: What went wrong, Mr. Joshua?
06/5/2004 Jon Matza: Must I keep repeating myself?
06/6/2004 TheBuyer: There goes my ten bucks. Then again, it's only like fifty cents american so it's not that big a deal.
06/6/2004 Mr. Joshua: Hungarian
06/6/2004 Mr. Joshua: What went wrong? I believe that Smarty lost the race in 2nd and 3rd quarter miles (distance races are often analyzed by what happens in each quarter....this race, a mile and a half, consists of six quarters). As they hit the backstretch, Smarty had Rock Hard Ten on his inside and Eddington on his outside, and those three were just going all out way too early, as can be evidenced by the dismal 4th and 5th place showings of Edd and RHT. The third quarter went in 23 seconds flat, whereas a normal third quarter in the Belmont might go somewhere between 24 and 25. This may not seem like much, but it is a huge difference....the winner of the race, Birdstone, was able to lay off this speed duel and conserve his energy for when it mattered. The fact that Smarty hung on to lose by only one length, while RHT and Edd finished double digit lenghts behind, just shows how tough and talented the Smart-Dog is. But they don't call the Belmont "The Test of the Champion" for nothing....it's a demanding race, and Smarty was just not good enough to win the Triple Crown. Now he'll take a well-deserved vacation and point toward the Breeders' Cup in October.
06/6/2004 qualcomm: sounds like his jockey screwed the pooch, then
06/6/2004 qualcomm: maybe he's what i and i alone would refer to as a "ham-and-egger"
06/6/2004 Mr. Joshua: With the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to say that Stewart Elliott blew the race....Monday morning jockeys will say he should have recognized the pace was too fast and backed off. But to do so would have meant asking Smarty to run in a way which he had never done, off the pace. I don't think the jock expected to be caught up in a speed duel that early in the race, and I'm sure if he could do it all over again, he would.
06/6/2004 Mr. Pony:
06/6/2004 qualcomm: well the little midget fuck shoulda called an audible
06/6/2004 Mr. Pony:
06/7/2004 John Slocum: Mr. Pony: Is that a grenade, or a satchel?
06/7/2004 Mr. Pony:
06/7/2004 scoop: "Smarty had Rock Hard Ten on his inside." Huh. I wish I were horse enough to handle all of Rock Hard Ten on my inside! HaHaHaHa!
06/7/2004 scoop: Why doncha draw a little picture of that Pony, you F-ing caveman! YEAH! Stick that in your pipe and scribble it!
07/1/2004 Mr. Pony: More Smartie Jones...
01/24/2005 The Rid (5): Hooray for Smartie Jones!
04/8/2005 deliciousbrains (5):