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J-DOG'S KENTUCKY DERBY 2012 PICKS

THE FIELD:

1. Daddy Long Legs
2. Optimizer
3. Take Charge
4. Union Rag
5. Dullahan
6. Bodemeister
7. Rousing Sermon
8. Creative Cause
9. Trinniberg
10. Daddy Nose Best
11. Alpha
12. Prospective
13. Went the Day Well
14. Hansen
15. Gemologist
16. El Padrino
17. Done Talking
18. Sabercat
19. I'll Have Another
20. Liaison

As the horses come under the wire for the first time, and head into the clubhouse turn, longshot sprinter Trinniberg will have opened up a few lengths on the rest of the field.

Hansen, Bodemeister, Creative Cause and I'll Have Another should be in the next flight. Calvin Borel will be close behind in his usual spot on the rail, aboard his charge, Take Charge Indy.

Some horses will be caught wide, effectively eliminating their chances of victory. Saving ground is critical, and horses with tactical speed are at a distinct advantage in a race such as the Derby.



The field will be strung out along the backstretch. The horses near the front of the pack will be attempting to improve position. Those in the rear will be inching closer, getting ready to make their moves.



As the field turns for home, some of the frontrunners will throw in the towel, as the demands of running 10 furlongs become too much. The closers will start picking up speed (this is actually an illusion - they are just not slowing down as quickly as the frontrunners). But in most Derbies, the winner is already at or near the lead by the 1/8th pole (220 yards from the finish). As the J-Dog sees it, Gemologist and Hansen will be battling it out for the lead, with Take Charge Indy, Daddy Nose Best, Alpha and El Padrino trying to make up ground before the wire.



A furious finish awaits....



As always, a hot pace is projected for the Derby. J-Dog don't see it. About half the field are 'closers', and I dont expect one to win this year. I was at Churchill Downs today, and stalkers/pressers were having their way. Let's go to the picks:

Gemologist (#15): Son of two-time Breeders Cup Classic hero, Tiznow, this undefeated colt has done nothing wrong. But he hasn't done anything 'sexy' lol and will probably go off the 3rd choice in the wagering at about 7-1. He has the right sheet pattern, the now fashionable two-prep schedule and the heart of his daddy.This is our best bet and we will run most of our tickets through him.

Hansen (#14): The white flash is taking some money in the early wagering. J-Dog was hoping for 12-1, but 8-1 might be more likely at this point. His superb tactical speed and gameness make him a must use.

El Padrino (#16): Bomber is getting no respect in the early wagering. He has some good hidden form, and I'm counting on him to tart up the exotic payouts.

Take Charge Indy (#3): The Calvin effect is making this horse a poor value. But he's a legitimjate threat and must be used underneath.

Alpha (#11): Game and tiny, he was treated with antibiotics after his good 2nd to Gemologist in the Genting Resorts World Wood Memorial Stakes. Kind of a wild card, but usable at 20-1.

Daddy Nose Best (#10): stretch runner might find himself with too much to do, but he is my favorite of the closers.

Favorites:
Union Rags (#4): As Little Andy says, "If he wins, I lose". Nice horsez, but hasnt shown he's fast enough, and I aint spending my greenbacks at 9-2 to find out.

Bodemeister (#6): legitimately fast and talented co-favorite. Will use him in some plays, but expecting a bounce. Live Longshots: Rousing Sermon, El Padrino, Alpha, Prospective

The Bets:
$30 Bankroll:
$1 exacta: 15 with 3,4,5,8,10,11,12,14,16,18
$1 exacta 14 with 15, 16
$1 trifecta 15 with 10,14,16 with 3,4,5,6,10,14,16

$100 Bankroll:
$1 exacta 14, 15 with 3,4,5,6,8,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19 ($28)
$1 trifecta 6,14,15with 3,10,14,15,16 with 3,10,14,15,16,18 ($65)
$7 win 15

Pimpin Bankroll:
$1 Superfecta. 15 with 10,11,14,16 with 3,4,5,6,8,10,11,14,16,18 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11,12,14,16,17,18,19 ($432)
$1 Trifecta 14,15 with 3,10,14,15,16 with 3,10,12,14,15,16,18 ($40)

Dont mix and match. Stick to the bankrolls and use all bets.




Date Written: May 05, 2012
Author: Mr. Joshua
Average Vote: 5

Comments:
05/5/2012 Will Disney (5): THANKS
05/5/2012 Jon Matza (5): 500 words = mint gambit, braulait
05/5/2012 Mr. Joshua: I just want to point out the attention to detail shown by Mr. Pony. He must have spent hours getting the saddle cloths and horse colors correct. Everything is 100% accurate.
05/5/2012 Mr. Pony (5): Couldn't have done it without your expert direction, buddy. Have a great time there, wherever this horse race thing is.
05/5/2012 qualcomm: Really, Matza? You're giving this a five?
05/5/2012 qualcomm: I wonder how much wealth these Derby posts have destroyed over the years.
05/6/2012 Mr. Pony: Did we win?
05/6/2012 Pale Male (5): I fucking hate horses but I really dug this, man.
05/7/2012 Mr. Joshua: That's a great question, Qualcomm. So I took the liberty of checking EVERY bet I have ever recommended on Acme. Here are the results, based on net payoffs: 2004 Preakness: +206 2005 Derby: -$330 2005 Preakness: -$68 2006 Derby: -$101 2007 Derby: +$224 2008 Derby: +$30,949 2008 Preakness: - $199 2008 Belmont: -$120 2009 Derby: -$773 2009 Preakness: -$333 2010 Derby: -$333 2010 Preakness: - $170 2011 Derby: -$270 2012 Derby: -$602 Total: +$28,080 Yeah, I guess my advice has destroyed a lot of wealth, lol
05/7/2012 qualcomm: What about minus the syndicate bets?
05/9/2012 Mr. Joshua: I'll be happy to break out the syndicate bets if I can break out the losing ones, too, since we're now playing God AFTER THE FACT (ie REDBOARDING)with which are the good bets and which are the bad ones.
05/11/2012 qualcomm: Well I took the bait on your Dankonian evasion, so let's get back to the original question: how much wealth these Derby posts have destroyed over the years?
05/18/2012 Jon Matza: Mr. J: is your calculation based on your own personal derby betting history? Or what an Acme awethor would have made had he / she made every bet you've suggested. Just cur. Big respektz, 'Za.
06/3/2012 Jon Matza: Is this thing on?!? ROTFLMAO
09/4/2012 Litcube (5):