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Date Written: May 06, 2004
Author: Mr. Pony
Average Vote: 4
The problem, of course, is that Smarty will offer no value, and will probably be bet down to 6-5 or so. If the track is wet, he will be an even shorter price, probably around 4-5.
But I see no shortcomings in his form coming into the race. Here's are two interesting, but seemingly contradictory Preakness stats: 5 of the last 7 Derby winners have come back to win the Preakness. But 8 times in the last 20 years, a horse that finished fourth or worse in the Derby has come back to win the Preakness. The first stat would indicate that one should wager heavily on Smarty. The second stat would lead one to think that Cliff's, Borrego and Song of the Sword all have a shot. I favor the former analysis. Here is the field and some suggested exotic bets:
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1. Lion Heart M. Smith P. Biancone 3-1
2. Borrego V. Espinoza B. Greely 15-1
3. Little Matth Man R. Migliore M. Ciresa 50-1
4. The Cliff's Edge S. Sellers N. Zito 8-1
5. Song of the Sword J. Chavez J. Pedersen 30-1
6. Sir Shackleton R. Bejarano N. Zito 30-1
7. Smarty Jones S. Elliott J. Servis 8-5
8. Imperialism K. Desormeaux K. Mulhall 5-1
9. Eddington J. Bailey M. Hennig 8-1
10. Rock Hard Ten G. Stevens J. Orman 6-1
11. Water Cannon R. Fogelsonger L. Albert 30-1
$5 Exacta Smarty/Sir Shackelton (substitute Rock Hard Ten if you want a more likely place horse, but a smaller payoff)
$5 Exacta Smarty/Borrego
$1 Trifecta: Smarty/Borrego, Cliff's, Rock Hard Ten, Sir Shackelton/Borrego, Cliff's, Rock Hard Ten, Sir Shackelton, Eddington. This is a $16 bet, but if Cliff's scratches, it will only cost $9. You ask for this bet by saying:
"One dollar trifecta, 7 with 2,4,6,10 with 2,4,6,9,10." Make sure that the numbers match up with the horses, as sometimes they change the program numbers at OTB. If Cliff scratches, just take the '4' out of what you say to the teller. If Cliff does scratch, you may want to play Imperialism and/or Lion Heart in the 3rd spot....to add one would raise the bet to $12, to add both would make the bet $15. So if Cliff Scratches, and you added both Lion Heart and Imp, you would call 'One dollar trifecta 7 with 2,6,10 with 1,2,6,8,9,10' (add in '1' for Lion Heart and/or '8' for Imperialism).
$1 Super: 7 with 2,10 with 2,4,6,10, with 1,2,4,6,8,9,10 This is a $30 bet. If Cliff scratches, it will cost $16. I only advise making this bet if you also make the tri bet, so you don't end up tearing out your hair if Shackelton or Cliff's place.
If you guys put together a four man syndicate on the tri and the super, it will only cost $12 each, and as little as $6 each if Cliff scratches. I'm really not that comfortable with the exotics in this race...I hit the trifecta at the Derby, but the bulk of my betting in this race will be on Smarty to win. My proportions will look something like this:
$200 Win Smarty
$24 as 1/3 of a $72 Superfecta syndicate
$6 as 1/3 of a $18 Trifecta syndicate
No exacta betting.
As you can see, almost my 90% of my wagering action will just be on the win. If the track is wet, I like Smarty even more, but I don't know if I can stomach 4-5 odds. If it is wet, I may not bet the race at all.
You may be wondering why I have left out Lion Heart and Imperialism from a good portion of the exotic positions. Lion Heart will likely be the second choice at about 3-1....he kind of reminds me of Peace Rules last year, who ran a very brave race in the Derby on the front end, and then came back to run a disappointing fourth in the Preakness. I expect similar things this year from Lion Heart. Also, if both he and Smarty do hit the tri, it's going to be a lousy payout anyway. Sometimes when betting tris and supers, you have to bet as much on what you hope happens as what you expect to happen.
Imperialism's trainer initially did not want to send him to this race, feeling that Smarty was just too good. But the owner of the horse is an asshole, and he loves the media attention, so he made her enter the horse in the race. I always bet against asshole, meddlesome owners. You see what happens when Steinbrenner thinks he's the GM....the same thing applies when an owner thinks he's a trainer. Imperialism will likely be the third choice at around 5-1, another reason to throw him out.
If it rains, both of these horses move up, and we could have a repeat of the Derby. Maybe in this case, just do a tri box with Smarty, Lion and Imp.
Here is a link to a pdf file of the past performances: http://drf.com/tc/preakness/2004/pps/04preakness.pdf
I will be leaving for Pimlico Friday morning and will try to notify the Lerpa if I see anything that necessitates a change in the handicapping strategy.
05/13/2004 Jon Matza: Holy Satan! Haven't even read it yet...
05/13/2004 Mr. Pony: Anybody ever read Equus?
05/13/2004 Mr. Joshua: Here are the links to past performances and post positions...printing these out will greatly assist in reading and understanding the text below. Insert a four digit number used to symbolize the present year where it reads 'censored'. Also, you save $5 by not having to purchase the Racing Form.
05/13/2004 Dylan Danko: Mr. Joshua, I can't begin to convey how crucial you are.
05/13/2004 Mr. Pony: What he said. There's nothing I know that much about. Nothing!
05/13/2004 Mr. Joshua: Here's a helpful flash tutorial on how to read the Racing Form. http://www.drf.com/flash/drf_pp_tutorial.html
05/13/2004 Jon Matza: Mr. Joshua, you have gone above & beyond the call of duty. You are to be commended. Minstrels, jugglers & mimes will sing of/act out your exploits, and those of Smartie Jones, for years to come. This is going to be one sweet payoff.
05/13/2004 Dylan Danko: "He came up on the left
Like a streak of light
Like a drunken fuck
On a Saturday night"
05/13/2004 scoop: Danko mumbled the last line, as inaudible as it was dispassionate. I love that song he thought as he wetted his dry throat with a slurry of metled ice and whiskey and spit from the bottom of a foggy shot glass. He groaned. He checked his watch. Time to go, his brain burped. But Danko didn't move. He thought about hope and groaned again. One more drink. It was a Tuesday.
05/13/2004 Mr. Joshua: Gentlemen: I only wish to re-iterate that I caution against aggressive betting in the exotics...I really can imagine just about any horse getting 2nd. As un-sexy as it may seem, try to focus on the win. But of course, play some exotics, if for nothing else than the sweetness. For the record, here's my tentative exotic betting syndicate (with three other people) for the race: If Cliff’s Edge gets scratched: $1 Superfecta: $90 Bet 1st: Smarty Jones 2nd: Borrego, Sir Shackelton, Rock Hard Ten 3rd: Borrego, Sir Shackelton, Rock Hard Ten, Lion Heart, Eddington*, Imperialism 4th: Borrego, Sir Shackelton, Rock Hard Ten, Lion Heart, Eddington, Imperialism, Song of the Sword* $1 Trifecta: $12 Bet 1st: Smarty Jones 2nd: Borrego, Sir Shackelton, Rock Hard Ten 3rd: Borrego, Sir Shackelton, Rock Hard Ten, Eddington, Imperialism *If Cliff’s Edge does not scratch, we will put him in 2nd, 3rd & 4th for the superfecta. We will remove Eddington from 3rd and Song of the Sword from 4th. This will increase the cost of the bet from $90 to $120. Also, we will put him in 2nd and 3rd in the trifecta, which will increase the cost of the bet from $12 to $20
05/13/2004 Mr. Pony: No one puts ice in a shot glass, you lunatic!
05/13/2004 scoop: Ass. Jerk.
05/13/2004 Dylan Danko: Scoop furrowed his brow and clenched his teeth. Gotta work on my grimace. Gotta get me one of them Walter Winchel hats. Shit! What are those those hats called again? He messed up his cubicle to make it look authentic and then practised picking up the phone and saying, "Yeah, whaddaya got for me. Ok, shoot!" Then he dusted his framed picture of Studs Terkel and waited for adventure. Nothing happened. It was Tuesday.
05/13/2004 scoop: H.L Mencken, assknuckle, who are your sources?! Accuracy is everything! And the truth, see, yeah, that's the ticket!
05/13/2004 Dylan Danko: H.L. Mencken my ass. Cindy Adams more like.
05/13/2004 Mr. Joshua: Are you guys here to exchange limp-wristed, literary-like accusations, or to handicap?!
05/13/2004 scoop: I'm here to get them to sign on the line that is dotted, baby.
05/13/2004 Mr. Joshua: I know you are, Scoop, and I appreciate that. Maybe Smarty could use a paean from a Damon Runyan or Ring Lardner type, to help this cuntry through its difficult time.
05/13/2004 John Slocum: Mr. Joshua = Eric Schickler on steroids?
05/14/2004 Dylan Danko: Schickler was able to make a living on the ponies.
05/15/2004 Jon Matza: SMARTIE JONES DOES IT AGAIN!!!!
05/15/2004 Jon Matza: MATZA WINS $78 on $36 worth of bets!!!
05/15/2004 Jon Matza: God bless Mr. Joshua!!
05/15/2004 Jon Matza: I think one of Mr Joshua's superfectas came in!!!
05/17/2004 Mr. Joshua: Yes, I hit the superfecta, and the trifecta twice, but I'm nonetheless in a fit of self-flagellation. As sound as my race predictions were, my betting strategy was equally unsound. I tried too hard to make something happen by placing Borrego and Sir Shackelton in second. I should have simply done a $100 straight exacta Smarty-Rock Hard Ten. I knew Rock Hard was the only horse with a chance, and sure enough, he finished two lengths clear of the others. But Smarty did show he is far and away the best three year old in the country...he is just about a lock to win the Triple Crown. He will probably be somewhere between 1-5 and 1-9 for the Belmont, so betting this race will be a serious challenge.
05/20/2004 Will Disney: i'm a winner too!
06/2/2004 Will Disney: pretty good this is the number #1 hit for google searches for 'smartie jones'. 130 visitors so far looking for that. it's spelled 'smarty', folks!
06/2/2004 Mr. Pony: WELCOME TO THE OFFICIAL HOME PAGE OF SMARTIE JONES!!!
06/2/2004 annebot (4): very, very creepy. Nice job dude!
07/1/2004 Mr. Pony: More Smartie Jones...
11/1/2004 The Rid (5): I know I'm a little late to the table with this one, but I laughed my ass off. Just the way he said, "My name is Smartie Jones." HA!